Swing state poll shows presidential candidate closing the gap in four crucial battlegrounds after RFK Jr dropped out
Kamala Harris is favored to win in three out of four crucial swing states she brought back into play after taking over from Joe Biden, new polls show.
The vice president is leading Donald Trump in Georgia and Nevada by two per cent and Arizona by one per cent, and trailing North Carolina by one per cent.
These four states appeared out of reach before President Biden dropped out of the race in favor of his VP on July 21, but are now winnable for the Democrats.
The polls by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News, done after the DNC and Robert F Kennedy Jr dropping out, showed how Harris redrew the electoral map over the past month.
Kamala Harris is favored to win in three out of four crucial swing states she brought back into play after taking over from Joe Biden
Biden needed to win all of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to stay president, all of which looked like they favored Trump.
‘These results show Harris has succeeded at expanding the electoral map,’ pollster Chris Anderson said in his analysis for Fox News.
‘When Biden was at the top of the ticket, the only pathway to an electoral college victory for the Democrat ticket was a sweep of the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
‘That’s no longer the case with these Sun Belt states in play.’
Michigan and Wisconsin now appear safe for Harris but Pennsylvania could go either way, heightening the importance of states like Arizona and Georgia.
The Beacon/Shaw poll showed how much Harris improved the prospects of a Democratic victory that looked faint after Biden’s June 27 debate disaster.
Beyond the top-line numbers, they showed how Harris boosted Democratic support among black and Hispanic voters – which notably waned for Biden – plus better numbers among young people, and even for Americans over 65.
Previous Fox News-sponsored surveys from earlier this year had Biden well behind Trump in each state, to the point polling was much less frequent.
He was down by five per cent in both Arizona and Nevada in June, six per cent in Georgia in April, and five per cent in North Carolina in February.
These four states appeared out of reach before President Biden (pictured on Saturday) dropped out of the race in favor of his VP on July 21, but are now winnable for the Democrats
The new poll results mirrored those of the 2020 election, where Biden only lost North Carolina, and all results were by less than 100,000 votes.
The poll is one of the first since RFK Jr dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump last week, and though three quarters of voters who said they had a favorable view of him backed Trump, the full effect of his exit is still yet to be seen.
Harris improved support among black voters from Biden’s to 79 per cent, 56 per cent with Hispanic citizens, 55 per cent if those under 30 and 51 per cent among voters 65 and over – all averaged across the four polls.
Women preferred Harris by 11 per cent, men backed Trump by the same amount, and independents favored Harris by six per cent.
Voters surveyed said the economy (41 per cent), immigration (14 per cent), and and abortion (13 per cent) were the biggest issues for them.
Arizona was the outlier, with just 37 per cent ranking the economy number one and instead being slightly more worried about immigration and abortion at 16 per cent each.
Healthcare and ‘election integrity’ were distant fourth and fifth concerns, and voters favored Harris.
Donald Trump is now on the back foot, defending states he appeared to have in the bag
Trump led Harris on who voters thought would better manage the economy at 53 to 45 per cent, and was far ahead on immigration at 57 to 41 per cent.
Harris was trusted more on abortion, but down 44 to 52 per cent on handling the Israeli invasion of Gaza.
The question is whether Harris can maintain and build on her improving poll results with last week’s Democratic National Convention in the rear-view.
‘Campaigns experience a bump in poll numbers after their convention and that typically dissipates in the month following — and that could be what happens here, but this isn’t a traditional campaign,’ Anderson said.
‘A lot of people thought Harris received a bump after Biden dropped out, but that has endured.’