New poll reveals shift in race between Trump and Kamala in two major states
The race for the White House is tightening up in two states previously thought to be solidly Republican.
Latest polls suggest the southern states of Texas and Florida, which Trump carried comfortably by 5 points and 4 points respectively in 2020, are now far closer than at any time in the race.
Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020 securing 30 electoral votes, while Texas which has remained solidly red since 1976 was also won by Trump in 2020, garnering him 40 electoral college votes.
But the former president has seen his support erode among most demographic groups since his Democratic rival in the November 5 election, Vice President Kamala Harris, replaced President Joe Biden atop the Democratic ticket over the summer.
Now things could be about to change in states that were never considered swing states or toss-ups, with latest surveys from Emerson College suggesting Harris is now within the margin of error (about 3 points) in both.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Saturday spoke at a rally in Wisconsin, a battleground state that could decide the election
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, right, is seen during a campaign stop at Penzeys Spices, in Pittsburgh
The poll suggests Trump is only narrowly ahead in his home state of Florida at 50 percent with Harris at 45 percent.
In Texas things are even tighter with just 4 percentage points separating the pair at 50 percent compared to Harris’ 46 percent, well within the margin of error.
Texas has remained a squarely red state since the late 1970s despite Democrats attempting to to turn the state blue.
In Florida, the state has steadily become more Republican since Obama carried the state in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential election.
The steady turn towards the GOP is in no small part due to the rise in the number of Republicans registered in the state with 1 million more GOP supporters registered to vote than Democrats.
Latest polls suggest the southern states of Texas and Florida , which Trump carried comfortably by 5 points and 4 points respectively in 2020, are now far closer
Donald Trump gestures as he addressed the Fraternal Order of Police at their meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Friday
Kamala Harris was welcomed by Senator John Fetterman and his wife Gisele Barreto Fetterman at Pittsburgh Airport on Friday
County elections supervisors revealed there are currently 5.3 million active Republican voters in Florida compared to 4.3 million active Democratic voters.
But Florida could still flip either way with a further 3.9 million voters who are either not affiliate with any political party or who affiliate with minor parties.
Nationally, Harris is leading Trump among Hispanic voters by 13 percentage points, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted in August, while Biden led that demographic by just five points in May.
She has also boosted her support among black Americans, outperforming Biden by seven points among that demographic.
But she has barely moved the needle among white voters, those same polls show.
Whites without a college degree, long the linchpin of Trump’s coalition, still favor the former president by 25 points, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Trump dances as he departs a campaign event in Mosinee, Wisconsin
Kamala Harris waves to the media members as she arrives at Pittsburgh days ahead of the first presidential debate
They favored Trump by 29 points when he was running against Biden.
That relative resilience among white voters represents an electoral bright spot for Trump, and several Trump advisers and allies have said in recent weeks that maintaining the former president’s margins within that demographic will be crucial if he is to defeat Harris.
That is especially true in the northern ‘Rust Belt’ states, Wisconsin included, which skew white and have large rural populations.
Trump relied heavily on these voters when he swept the Rust Belt’s swing states on the way to his 2016 victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Biden won the White House in 2020 in part by bringing some of these voters back into the Democratic Party.
While the Trump campaign has identified Hispanics and black men as a key area of growth for the Republican Party, much of Trump’s campaigning in recent weeks has taken place in small cities and towns in the Rust Belt that are not diverse.
Trump’s running mate, Ohio U.S. Senator JD Vance, is expected to hit relatively rural areas of the Rust Belt particularly hard in the final weeks before the election.