Alternative for Germany set for first regional election victory

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Voters in the east German regions of Saxony and Thuringia headed to the polls on Sunday, with the Alternative for Germany party on course for victory in at least one of the states — an outcome that would amount to a political earthquake.

Polls indicate the AfD could come first in Thuringia, the first time a far-right party has won a regional election in Germany’s postwar history. In Saxony, it has been polling two percentage points behind the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU).

Parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition are bracing themselves for a drubbing, as voters express their frustration at a government many associate with high inflation, economic stagnation, surging energy costs and constant internecine bickering.

The elections have been dominated by the war in Ukraine, with both the AfD and the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) demanding an end to German military support for Kyiv and peace talks to bring an end to hostilities.

The campaign has also shown that 34 years after German reunification a majority of people in the former communist east of the country are deeply disillusioned with the mainstream parties of the centre and frustrated with the way Germany is run.

A recent survey by pollsters Forsa of voter sentiment in Thuringia put the AfD on 30 per cent, the centre-right CDU on 22, the BSW on 17 and the far-left Die Linke on 14, with Scholz’s Social Democrats on 7 per cent.

In Saxony, the CDU is polling at 33 per cent, the AfD on 31, the BSW on 12, the Social Democrats on 7 and the Greens on 6, according to Forsa.

The AfD will not be able to form a government in either Saxony or Thuringia, even if it wins both elections. No other party will co-operate with it, denying the AfD the parliamentary majority needed to rule.

The AfD, which was formed 11 years ago by economists angry at the Eurozone bailouts, has morphed into a hardline, historically revisionist nationalist party vehemently opposed to immigration.

Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has designated the party’s local Saxon and Thuringian branches as “rightwing extremist”. In Thuringia the party is led by Björn Höcke, an ethno-nationalist who was recently fined €17,000 for using banned Nazi slogans in a speech to supporters. 

It could prove difficult to form viable coalitions without the AfD, however. For the CDU to govern in Thuringia, for example, it might have to team up with the BSW, an option that would be hard to swallow for many in the centre-right party. 

Wagenknecht, a former communist who many see as an apologist for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has made Ukraine policy a precondition for any coalition talks, saying ahead of the elections that the BSW would “only enter a regional government that took a clear position for diplomacy and against preparations for war, on a national level too”.

That triggered outrage in the CDU, which has been steadfast in its support for Ukraine and has pressed the Scholz government, already the second-largest provider of military assistance to Kyiv after the US, to supply even more weapons.

Höcke has taken a similar position to Wagenknecht, saying in his campaign speeches that the AfD was against Germany “being dragged into a war with Russia by some wacko western elites”. 

The campaign has been overshadowed by the August 23 terror attack in the west German town of Solingen, when a suspected Isis operative and Syrian national fatally stabbed three people and injured eight others.

Both the AfD and BSW seized on the incident to claim that uncontrolled immigration had led to a surge in violent crime on German streets and to demand that asylum-seekers who have committed crimes be deported.

In Berlin, fears are growing that the governing parties — Scholz’s SPD, the Greens and Liberals — could face a wipeout. Some polls suggest that all three parties might perform so badly that they won’t make it into the regional parliaments in both Saxony and Thuringia.

There has been speculation that such a crushing defeat could prompt one or more of the coalition partners to withdraw from the government, triggering snap elections.

But experts say such an outcome is unlikely. All three are polling so badly nationwide that there is little appetite to face voters ahead of the next scheduled election in the autumn of 2025.