Home teams poised for huge fan boost after referee study highlights advantage

A study has found matches were technically fairer when they were played behind closed doors – and that home teams are set for a big boost now supporters have returned in their tens of thousands

Referees are much less likely to book players representing the home team in front of packed-out stadiums, according to a new, eye-opening study.

But the same does not apply when there are no fans in the stadium, as was the norm last season due to the coronavirus pandemic.

This means matches were technically fairer when they were played behind closed doors – and that home teams are set for a big boost now supporters have returned in their tens of thousands.

The study was conducted by the University of Salzburg and found that crowds have no impact on referees’ decisions against away teams.

The institution investigated 1,286 in England, Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia, Turkey, Austria and the Czech Republic.

645 of the matches analysed came in front of regular attendances in the 2018/19 season, while 641 were played behind closed doors in the following campaign.

Remarkably, the win rate of home teams dropped from 65 per cent to 53 per cent when no fans were allowed to attend.

Dr Michael Leitner led the study at the Austrian institution and believes referees are more likely to side with the home crowd’s cheers due to an instinctive herd mentality.

He said: “There are of course other factors, but we believe this referee bias has a strong effect on the so-called ‘home advantage’.

“From an evolutionary point of view, we humans are pack animals and therefore our decisions depend strongly on our environment, the situation and other people present.

“By investigating these specific ‘weak points’ in the human psyche – resulting in conformity and biased decision making – we strive to develop effective psychological interventions and countermeasures.”

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Having fans present to spur on their side has also been shown to increase the number of goals scored per game.

Tel Aviv University worked out there were 2.8 goals per game at Euro 2020, where varying numbers of supporters were allowed to attend depending on the venue.

In contrast, there were just 2.38 goals per game at the Copa America, which ran at the same time but was held behind closed doors.

Responding to the findings, senior lecturer Dr Yftach Gepner said: “How our bodies respond with or without cheering is biologically different, which is incredibly interesting.

“We already know that cheering crowds have a great psychological effect on athletes, but were surprised to find they also have a physiological impact that affects performance.

“We found cheering and encouragement affects the strength of muscles and their ability to recover by reducing inflammation markers which can cause damage.”