Indian ‘Delta’ variant Covid cases have spiked by 80 per cent in a week and nearly 76,000 people have now caught the mutated strain in the UK, with its takeover complete as it now makes up 99 per cent of cases nationwide.
A Public Health England report today revealed the fast-spreading variant has now completely taken over in Britain and the country’s outbreak is being driven by spikes in unvaccinated young people.
The number of people admitted to hospital after catching the variant rose more than two-fold to 806 from 383 in the past week – but only one in 10 were fully vaccinated – and Indian variant deaths increased from 42 to 73.
The new fast-spreading variant, which scientists think is around 60 per cent more transmissible than the Kent strain that was dominant over the winter, has triggered a surge in cases that led Boris Johnson abandon his plan to end lockdown on June 21, with researchers now scrambling to work out how dangerous it is.
Promising figures suggest two doses of vaccine work well against the strain, although one is not very effective, and the jabs rollout today opened up to everyone over the age of 18 in the UK.
PHE’s report today showed that, since the variant was first discovered in April, the most cases have been found in Bolton in Greater Manchester, where 4,684 positive tests had been linked to the strain by June 14.
Other hard-hit areas were in the North of England or Midlands, too, with Manchester (3,102), Blackburn (2,762), Birmingham (1,948) and Leeds (1,642) filling out the five worst-affected places.
The variant is least common in rural areas, mainly in the South West, with the lowest numbers of cases found in Torridge, Devon and North Devon, which both have fewer than five cases each, and West Devon (5), South Hams, also in Devon (6), and North Norfolk (6).
The UK Health Security Agency’s Dr Jenny Harries said: ‘Cases are rising rapidly across the country and the Delta variant is now dominant… It is encouraging to see that hospitalisations and deaths are not rising at the same rate.’
Britain yesterday recorded its highest number of cases since February 19 in the second wave, with 11,007 positive tests, but there are signs outbreaks are coming under control in the northern areas hardest hit by the strain.
Graph left: A Public Health England report published today revealed the fast-spreading variant has now completely taken over in Britain and it makes up 99 per cent of cases. Graph right: Lab testing shows that the Delta variant (pink) has accounted for thousands of cases (specimens) in recent weeks and case numbers are soaring. It has dwarfed all other variants, shown in different colours, and pushed out the Kent strain, which is marked as unclassified because lab tests did not confirm the variant beyond doubt. A quirk of the Kent variant means that a basic check of whether a test has worked properly can rule it out – swabs where one of the virus’s genes, known as the ‘S gene’ is not detected are assumed to be Alpha
Most of the surge in Indian variant cases has been driven by young people – the graph shows there are significantly more cases among under-40s than middle-aged or older people, who have mostly been vaccinated. Dr Jenny Harries said: ‘The increase is primarily in younger age groups, a large proportion of which were unvaccinated but are now being invited to receive the vaccine’
Just 84 out of 806 admissions were among people who had been given both vaccine doses. 135 happened after someone had protection from their first dose and 587 were among people who were unvaccinated, unknown or had had their first dose within the past three weeks meaning they were unlikely to have any immunity
Dr Harries added: ‘The increase is primarily in younger age groups, a large proportion of which were unvaccinated but are now being invited to receive the vaccine.
‘It is encouraging to see that hospitalisations and deaths are not rising at the same rate but we will continue to monitor it closely.
‘The vaccination programme and the care that we are all taking to follow the guidance are continuing to save lives. Please make sure that you come forward to receive both doses of the vaccine as soon as you are eligible. Don’t drop your guard – practice “hands, face, space, fresh air” at all times.’
Despite concerns about the numbers of positive tests spiking, there are signs the outbreak is slowing down and that vaccines are protecting people well against the variant.
Only one in 10 people who were admitted to hospital with the new strain had been given both their jabs, showing that vaccines protect well because the majority of people becoming severely ill are unvaccinated.
Just 84 out of 806 admissions were among people who had been given both vaccine doses. 135 happened after someone had protection from their first dose and 587 were among people who were unvaccinated, unknown or had had their first dose within the past three weeks meaning they were unlikely to have any immunity.
In an analysis of 60,624 of the 75,953 cases since February 1, PHE found that just 4,087 infections were among people who had been given both their vaccine doses – seven per cent or one in every 14.
Official Department of Health infection data show that the average daily rate of increase in positive tests had halved in a week up to yesterday.
And in another sign the outbreak is losing speed, a symptom-tracking study estimated that 15,760 people are now getting sick each day — up only a third in a week after doubling a week earlier.
Professor Tim Spector, the King’s College London epidemiologist who runs the Covid Symptom Study, said: ‘The numbers this week seem to be slowing down, which is good news. Worrying areas with a high number of cases like Scotland and the North West are starting to level off.
‘I’m predicting based on past experience that, although we may not have reached the peak quite yet, within two weeks we will see cases beginning to drop again.’
But he insisted the PM’s decision to put ‘Freedom Day’ on hold until mid-July was ‘probably necessary’ as his study showed vaccines are doing a huge amount of heavy lifting and slashing case numbers.
Explaining that jabs could be protecting areas against bigger surges, Professor Spector said: ‘Wales in particular has seen tangible benefits from a faster than average vaccination rate, where they previously had some of the highest rates in the country, we are now seeing clear protection against rises.
‘Wales is now several weeks ahead of the rest of the UK in terms of vaccinations, so it looks like the rest of us will soon follow suit.’
WHERE HAVE THE MOST DELTA VARIANT CASES BEEN FOUND?
- Bolton – 4,684
- Manchester – 3,102
- Blackburn with Darwen – 2,762
- Birmingham – 1,948
- Leeds – 1,642
- Wigan – 1,544
- Salford – 1,512
- Stockport – 1,242
- Bradford – 1,099
- Bedford – 1,094
WHERE HAVE THE FEWEST DELTA VARIANT CASES BEEN FOUND?
- North Devon – <5
- Torridge (Devon) – <5
- West Devon – 5
- East Devon – 6
- North Norfolk – 6
- South Hams (Devon) – 6
- Mid Devon – 7
- East Cambridgeshire – 9
- Ipswich – 9
- Bolsover (Derbyshire) – 10
Most of the Indian ‘Delta’ variant cases have been found in the North West of England (dark blue) but they are spread across the country
One of the key reasons the Prime Minister decided not to go ahead with ending lockdown next week was because experts fear not enough people have been vaccinated to prevent a devastating third wave.
Just over half of adults have had two vaccine doses. Over three quarters – nearly 41million people – have had their first jab but studies show that a single shot doesn’t offer good protection against the new Delta variant, with only around 33 per cent protection from infection.
COVID THE 24TH BIGGEST CAUSE OF DEATH IN MAY
Twenty-three diseases and conditions killed more people than Covid in England last month and the virus was responsible for fewer than 1 per cent of all fatalities, official figures show.
Despite the rapid rise in infections of the Indian variant in May, the Office for National Statistics found that Covid deaths continued to fall significantly during the month.
Coronavirus claimed 355 lives in May, which was down almost 65 per cent on the toll in April, in another sign that the vaccines are providing huge protection even against the mutant strain.
The continued decline in Covid deaths means the virus is now the 24th ‘leading’ cause of death, down from ninth last month. It had been the country’s biggest killer for four consecutive months from November through February.
In total there were 35,401 deaths from all causes registered in England last month, which was 10 per cent lower than normal and the second month in a row they have been below average. Covid was the leading cause in just 0.9 per cent of the fatalities, accounting for about one in 110.
Heart disease was the biggest killer in May (3,780) followed by dementia (3,711), while flu and pneumonia are now killing three times as many patients (1,012) as Covid.
‘Boris Johnson’s decision this week to delay the lifting of all restrictions in the UK, was a difficult but probably necessary one,’ Professor Spector added. ‘It’s good to see decisions being made from the data, not dates.
‘Life is better than it was, where we can go out and see friends and family, so having a few more weeks will give us the time and space to get more people vaccinated.
‘We have already seen that being fully vaccinated dramatically reduces both the likelihood of contracting the virus, as well as severity of symptoms, so it’s crucial that everyone eligible for the vaccine gets the first or second jab as soon as possible.’
There had been early signs this week that cases were beginning to come under control in the areas first hit by the Delta variant, suggesting the strain can be controlled without lockdowns.
Covid cases appear to be flat or falling in the hardest-hit places, with the infection rate in Blackburn with Darwen, which took over from Bolton as the country’s hotspot at the end of May, falling after appearing to peak on June 4 when there had been an average 143 cases per day over the previous week.
It remains the worst-affected place in the country but if the trend keeps up the change of fortunes could suggest that, as was seen in Bolton, simple surges in testing and vaccinations and tougher advice on travelling in or out of the area and social distancing could be enough to keep a lid on local outbreaks.
Ministers this week urged another 3.6million people in Birmingham, Liverpool, Warrington and parts of Cheshire to try to avoid travelling and be more careful about virus control measures in a bid to slow outbreaks there.
The other areas that were first to be hard hit by the strain when it emerged in April – Bedford and Burnley – also appear to have arrested the spread of Covid by scaling up local efforts to stamp it out and test and isolate everyone.
Those four areas, Bedford, Blackburn, Bolton and Burnley, were the first to see cases surge, the first to get extra help from the Government to control the virus, and now appear to be the first to see infections levelling off.
Blackburn’s public health director, Dominic Harrison, said that cases appeared to have ‘peaked’ there after a massive spike.
On Twitter the local health chief said yesterday: ‘Good news – increasingly strong signal that the [Blackburn with Darwen] case rate may have peaked on 7th June (at 667) & that the fall in daily case numbers will be sustained for at least 7 days. First sustained fall since initial Delta variant case on 7th April.
‘Based on Blackburn and Bolton experience – other areas with Delta variant surge (with strong surge response) may get: –8 week rise in cases, increased but manageable hospitalisations with very low mortality. This may be what ‘living with COVID ‘looks like!’
Infections are still rising fast in many areas that have been added to the official hotspots, however, with cases going up in twice as many areas as they are flat or falling.