In North Carolina, the Math for a Supermajority May Come Down to One

This fall, as Democrats and Republicans vie for control of state legislatures across the country, much of the attention has focused on states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona, where one or two seats could tip the balance.

But in a handful of states, the legislature is dominated by one party, while the governor’s office is held by another. In those states, a high-stakes effort is underway to either preserve an existing supermajority — which confers the ability to override a governor’s veto — or to break it.

Nowhere has the battle been more magnified than in North Carolina, a heavily gerrymandered state where Republicans hold the 60 percent minimum required for an override in both chambers, even though registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans.

Last year, after State Representative Tricia Cotham unexpectedly switched her party affiliation from Democrat to Republican, Republican leaders were able to enact a 12-week limit on most abortions, overriding Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat.

Now, Republican legislators cannot afford to lose a single seat, in either chamber, if they want to continue to override his vetoes.

“Remember, one legislator delivered the supermajority,” Beth Helfrich, a Democrat running for the state House of Representatives, said during a recent town hall in Davidson, N.C. “My math says one can break it.”

Similar situations are playing out in other states.

Gov. Laura Kelly of Kansas, a Democrat, has vetoed bills on abortion, criminal justice and other issues, only to be overridden by the Republicans’ two-thirds supermajority in that state’s Legislature. Democrats need to net two seats in the House, or three in the Senate, to break that pattern.

In Nevada, Gov. Joe Lombardo, a Republican, vetoed a record 75 bills in 2023, frustrating Democrats, who have a two-thirds supermajority in the House, but are one short in the Senate. Republicans do not want to lose that seat.

Republicans with their supermajority in North Carolina have been able to loosen campaign finance rules, strip the governor’s power to appoint members to state boards and block efforts to update energy efficiency rules for new homes, all over Mr. Cooper’s objections.

To preserve that advantage, Republicans there are spending $5.3 million on television ads to bolster candidates in 10 House districts, including Ms. Cotham’s. At the national level, the Republican State Leadership Committee, pinpointing North Carolina as among the states where Democrats want to “dismantle Republican supermajorities,” are investing a record $38 million in state legislative races this year.

On the flip side, The States Project, a Democratic-aligned group, is spending $70 million on legislative races in nine states, including ones for several House seats in North Carolina. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is highlighting 14 North Carolina House and Senate races as part of a $10 million push to convince voters of the importance of controlling state legislatures, said Jeremy Jansen, the group’s political director.

“We have an opportunity here in North Carolina to be able to give power back, or at least give some semblance of a balance of power back, by giving the veto pen to the governor,” he said.

One notable tossup, according to an analysis of partisan leanings by the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think tank, is the 25th district in Nash County, a rural and working-class area east of Raleigh, where State Representative Allen Chesser, a first-term Republican, is being challenged by Lorenza M. Wilkins, an executive at an anti-hunger nonprofit.

That is also Mr. Cooper’s home district. Brenda Brown, the Republican mayor of Nashville, who lives around the corner from where the governor grew up, gushed about the Coopers: “Just good people.”

Still, Ms. Brown, a retired school principal, enthusiastically endorsed Mr. Chesser, saying he had notched vital grants, such as $5 million in state funding to modernize the county jail.

Mr. Chesser, 39, joined the Army after Sept. 11 and worked as a police officer before working in security and technology. A former high school soccer player, he co-founded a Christian youth soccer league with his wife.

“I played the position of sweeper — the very last defender,” he said over breakfast at a restaurant in Middlesex. “That’s kind of my political philosophy as well. I am a true believer in individual rights and freedoms. Limited government in the truest sense.”

He sponsored a bill allowing people with concealed carry permits to bring handguns into churches that also serve as schools. Calling himself “100 percent pro-life,” he voted to restrict abortion and give parents more control over school curriculums.

Two of his bills were signed by Mr. Cooper: one enabling patients with rare diseases to receive experimental drugs or medical treatments not approved by the Food and Drug Administration, and another easing the rules for families to adopt foster children.

“I’m a bit of a unicorn,” said Mr. Chesser, who defeated a two-term Democratic incumbent in 2022. “I never campaigned on bringing the supermajority to Nash County.”

But Owen H. Strickland II, mayor of Bailey, population 564, said that preserving the Republican supermajority was “vitally important,” since Democrats are favored to retain the governorship.

“Whether it’s $5 or $5 million for a local bill to help us with whatever, I have to be able to pick up the phone and say, ‘Hey, I need this done,’” said Mr. Strickland, a former Democrat. “The only way it’s going to get done is if you have a supermajority.”

Mr. Chesser’s challenger, Dr. Wilkins, 51, holds a doctorate in business administration and boasts a wide-ranging résumé including stints as a locomotive engineer and human resources manager.

In an interview at the Nash County Democratic headquarters in Rocky Mount, Dr. Wilkins said his top priority was public education. Unlike Mr. Chesser, he is leery of North Carolina Opportunity Scholarships, which provide state-funded vouchers for private schools. He also sounded the alarm on Project 2025, a package of conservative proposals.

“What’s within that document will start to filter down to the state level,” he said. “You want to remove the Department of Education. What is that going to do to impoverished kids and school districts?”

A graduate of North Carolina Central University, a historically Black school, and a resident of a district that is 41 percent Black and 8 percent Hispanic, Dr. Wilkins worries about a supermajority bent on gutting diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.

Dr. Wilkins has been endorsed by state and national labor, reproductive rights and environmental groups — as has Ms. Helfrich, a former English teacher and school administrator who is running in the 98th district, an affluent and highly educated pocket north of Charlotte.

The seat in the 98th district is held by Representative John R. Bradford III, one of several moderate Republicans who ignored Mr. Cooper’s entreaties to break with his caucus on abortion. He turned his sights on Congress, but lost in the Republican primary, and Melinda Bales, a former mayor of Huntersville, is the Republican pick for his old seat.

Ms. Helfrich has raised $243,000 — versus $91,000 for Ms. Bales — with nearly 40 percent of her donors living outside the state.

Ms. Helfrich has stressed that gerrymandered maps and politically motivated redistricting in North Carolina and other states damage democracy. She is also tapping into anger over the new abortion restrictions. Indeed, Ms. Cotham’s mother was trounced unexpectedly in a Democratic primary for re-election to the Mecklenburg County Board of Commissioners, in what was widely viewed as a proxy vote against her daughter.

In an interview at the home of her father, a retired theater professor at Davidson College, Ms. Helfrich recounted listening to the abortion override vote. She has five children, but has also experienced miscarriages.

“I think a lot of people end up asking the question, what can I do?” said Ms. Helfrich, 43. “And lo and behold, what I can do is put together a coalition and build enough momentum in this one district.”

Ms. Bales declined to be interviewed.

A native of Eastern Tennessee, Ms. Bales, 54, logged 12 years as an elected commissioner and mayor in fast-growing Huntersville. Her platform centers on education, transportation and economic development.

Within a half-mile of her house, few residents said they had heard of Ms. Bales.

Betsy Neumann, 39, who described herself as being in the middle, politically, said she worried about Republicans continuing to “take freedoms away from other people,” citing abortion and gay marriage.

But Dawn Gilpatrick, 60, who described herself as “a pretty strong Republican,” praised Ms. Bales’s efforts to bring more companies to Huntersville to increase the tax base. She wants Ms. Bales to join Republicans in pushing for voter ID restrictions and school vouchers.

At a hot dog picnic in Mint Hill, hosted by the Mecklenburg County Republican Party, Ken May, the founding director of the Hornet’s Nest Men’s Republican Club, praised Ms. Bales as “not fiery, not blustery. She works across the aisle and is super friendly.”

Then Mr. May excused himself to introduce one of several local and statewide candidates in attendance: Ms. Cotham.

Wearing a red dress to match a sea of MAGA hats, Ms. Cotham noted that while this was her seventh campaign, “this is my first time running as a Republican, and I am so excited!”

She vowed to tackle crime and beef up the economy. Then she mentioned Governor Cooper.

“It’s a glorious day when you get to override his veto,” she beamed.