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Poll gives Biden six-point lead in FL and NINE-point lead in PA, enough to gain the White House

Joe Biden is leading outside the margin of error in several key battleground states in a poll released the day before Election Day, giving him enough of a lead to take the White House.

Even deep red Texas appears to be up-in-the air with a tie between the Democratic nominee and President Donald Trump.

Florida, the most influential swing state with 29 Electoral College votes, and Pennsylvania, holding 20 Electoral College votes, are two states considered to be must-wins for Trump to secure another term.

But Biden is ahead in both, according to a Morning Consult poll released Monday and taken October 22-31.

The Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,451 likely voters in Florida and 2,686 likely voters in Pennsylvania.

The results in Pennsylvania, potentially the most consequential state for Trump clinching a win, are likely to still be unknown on Election Night as the Supreme Court ruled last month that the Keystone State can accept and count mail-in ballots through Friday – three days after the election.

Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump outside the poll’s margin of error in Pennsylvania and Florida, two states that could decide the election on Tuesday 

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Nationally, Biden is ahead of Trump by 8 percentage points. And the only swing state where Trump is shown ahead outside the poll’s margin of error is Ohio. The two are tied in the deep red state of Texas

In the same ruling, North Carolina, another swing state, will also count ballots eight days after the election.

Overall, Biden leads Trump by 8 percentage points nationally, with 51.9 per cent of the 14,663 likely voters surveyed by Morning Consult saying they would vote for Biden if the election were held at the time of the poll and 43.9 per cent saying they favor the president.

The 3 per cent remainder of likely voters polled say they don’t know who they are backing – with 30 per cent saying they are leaning toward Biden, 28 per cent leaning toward Trump, but a whopping 43 per cent saying they are more likely to vote for a Third Party candidate.

The national poll has a margin of error of only plus or minus 1 percentage points.

Biden is also leading in swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona.

His lead, however, falls within the small margin of error for state polling of plus or minus 2 percentage points in Arizona, which has 11 Electoral College votes and North Carolina, which has 15 Electoral College votes.

Texas, a deeply Republican state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since 1976, is tied with the 3,267 likely voters polled split 48.1 per cent for which candidate they are casting their ballot.

According to the rolling poll, the only swing state where Trump is leading in Ohio where he holds 49.2 per cent compared to Biden’s 46.6 per cent.

He is also leading outside the margin of error in Indiana, Missouri and South Carolina if the election were held the day respondents were prompted with the question of who they would vote for.

Voters line up to cast their ballots early in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Keystone State is allowing mail-in ballots to still be counted as they come in up to three days after Election Day - meaning the results there may not be known until Friday at the earliest

Voters line up to cast their ballots early in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Keystone State is allowing mail-in ballots to still be counted as they come in up to three days after Election Day – meaning the results there may not be known until Friday at the earliest

A record-setting tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots either through mail-in or absentee measures or going to vote early in-person in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

The rest will head to their polling places on Tuesday to cast their ballot.

While presidential election results are rarely officially known on Election Day, projections are usually secure enough that a winner can be predicted late on the first Tuesday in November.

The obviously loser, usually concedes that night as well – paving the way for the opposition to declare victory.

With the massive influx of mail-in and early voters this year, however, the results are much more likely to be up-in-the-air Tuesday.


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