Takeaways From East Germany’s State Elections

The far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, had a very successful night in two East German states on Sunday, with nearly a third of voters voting for the party, whose state chapters have been classified as “confirmed extremist” by German domestic intelligence.

But while a far-right party doing so well in two German states less than eight decades after the end of Nazi Germany is symbolically fraught, it will likely have only limited impact on Germany’s national politics. Although a record number of voters turned out on Sunday in the two states, only about 7 percent of all Germans were eligible to vote.

Nor is the AfD expected to find allies easily. All the other parties that won statehouse seats on Sunday have committed themselves to not collaborating with the far right, in a strategy that will further alienate far-right voters but that is intended to ensure democratic stability in government.

Still, the elections will have ripple effects that are hard to predict, not least on the success of a far-left party that did not exist last year. In Thuringia, the smaller of the two states, nearly half of the voters chose extremist parties, which will force parties to make difficult compromises in the coming weeks if their leaders are to create a stable, working government.

In Saxony, where the mainstream Christian Democratic Union, or C.D.U., came in first, things are slightly more straightforward, in part because Greens and Social Democrats could retain a role in a minority government.

Here are some takeaways from the election:

The far right is surging in the former communist east.

With nearly 33 percent of the vote in Thuringia and 31 percent in Saxony, the AfD had its best statewide showing since it was founded as a euroskeptic party 11 years ago.

The AfD’s first-place finish in Thuringia could make governing the state messy. Björn Höcke, the AfD’s state leader, announced on Sunday that as the largest party, the AfD would be looking for coalition partners — what will probably be a futile, if time-consuming stunt.

But more important, AfD has probably won enough seats in Thuringia’s statehouse to block certain critical votes that require the assent of two-thirds of legislators, including to change the state’s Constitution.

While the AfD has done well in eastern states, it tends not to in the west of Germany. In the European Union’s parliamentary election this June, the party got 15.9 percent of the vote across the country.

Still, the surge in the AfD could help push mainstream parties to adopt positions associated with the far right, and many politicians have already shifted on some issues, including rules on deportations.

A far-left party emerged as a new force.

The upstart Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, known by its German initials B.S.W., had a historic night.

The party, which was not founded until January, garnered nearly 16 percent of the vote in Thuringia and almost 12 percent in Saxony. Those results, coupled with the fact that no one is willing to work with the AfD, mean it will likely play a part in one or both state governments — which is unheard-of for a party that is less than a year old.

Sahra Wagenknecht, the former communist who founded the party, has said that she would not join a coalition with parties that support arming Ukraine. It remains to be seen to what extent she insists on that stance, which is one of her party’s main planks, or whether the C.D.U., which has consistently pushed Chancellor Olaf Scholz to help Ukraine and is hoping to run both state governments, will change its course on the issue.

In either case, Sunday’s elections could help temper Germany’s willingness to support Ukraine militarily.

Scholz’s coalition was weakened further.

Although Mr. Scholz’s Social Democratic Party garnered enough voter support on Sunday to remain in both statehouses, the same could not be said of his two governing partners. With less than the 5 percent needed to sit in the statehouse, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party, or F.D.P., were both kicked out of the state parliament in Thuringia. The F.D.P. also failed to win enough seats to enter Saxony’s state parliament.

While the results of the election don’t immediately affect the coalition, it could have drive some members to reconsider sticking with it until the next federal election a year from now.

But even if the coalition does hold, the election results are expected to stymie new progressive laws, as coalition partners become ever more nervous about a right-wing backlash in next’s year’s election.

A viable mainstream opposition still exists.

The only mainstream party to come out on top on Sunday was the C.D.U., which has been in the opposition in Berlin since Angela Merkel, its longtime leader, did not run again for chancellor in 2021.

The results on Sunday will likely benefit Friedrich Merz, the C.D.U.’s leader. Analysts said the results suggest that, under his more conservative leadership on issues like immigration, the party has a chance against populist rivals.

And while there are weeks to go before the states form governments, it is likely that both Thuringia and Saxony will be lead by a C.D.U. governor, which would give the party added power in Berlin through the Federal Council of States, which comprises state leaders.

“We are the bulwark,” Carsten Linnemann, the C.D.U. secretary general, told reporters on Sunday.